The mountain bike 2030: Lutz Scheffer and Fabian Scholz on super-mullet, e-blessing & gearboxes

As the year draws to a close, 32-inch wheels and the revival of upside-down forks seem to be the biggest innovations of the season. It remains to be seen whether 32-inch wheels will become established across the board, whether they will only serve a niche market, or whether they will disappear just as quietly as the once up-and-coming plus tyres. Designer Bodo Probst comments: "32-inch wheels? For me, just a trend that the industry is clinging to - in the hope of giving customers a reason to buy a new bike."

Our two interview partners see things differently. Lutz Scheffer (59), a veteran of the industry, designed bikes for Canyon for 15 years and has been designing bikes for Rotwild since 2017. Fabian Scholz (40), German Enduro Champion in 2015, built frames for Focus for a long time and recently joined Cannondale as Senior Product & Innovation Manager. We ventured a look into the future with the two of them and asked them to outline their vision for 2030.

Looking ahead: with Lutz Scheffer and Fabian Scholz

BIKE: MTBs without an e-drive are set to become extinct in many categories in the future. What kind of organic bikes will still be around in 2030?

SCHEFFER: Cross-country to all-mountain-plus remain relevant - especially where organic bikes have a unique selling point compared to e-bikes. The joy of organic bikes lies in their low weight, not in the category. With heavier bikes, you are competing directly with lighter e-bikes.

SCHOLZ: In five to ten years' time, I only see bikes without a motor in the extremes - i.e. cross-country and downhill bikes. And then trail and all-mountain bikes in the entry-level segment. Everything else will be niche.

What about minimal-assist bikes - will they still be around in the future?

SCHOLZ: They remain a niche market. With the Moterra SL, we have shown that full-power bikes can also be light. This means that minimal-assist bikes lose their main argument.

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SCHEFFER: Minimal-assist and power e-bikes merge. Motors are becoming stronger, lighter and quieter. Minimal-assist bikes of the future will be technically powerful, perhaps differing only in terms of battery size and therefore range. The customer can then put the large or the small, lightweight battery in the down tube.

Is there still room for improvement in the development of motors?

SCHOLZ: Motors are almost fully developed. They may become 100 to 200 grams lighter, but that's it. The batteries are more exciting: solid-state batteries with a higher energy density will come onto the market at some point and offer more capacity for the same weight. The car industry is ahead of us in this respect.

SCHEFFER: Nothing has been fully developed yet. Motors are still getting much lighter. With new gear shapes and better heat management, the physical limit for motors is around 2000 grams in weight and 1200 watts peak power. They are also becoming quieter. Perhaps motor noise will be a thing of the past in 2030 - similar to the noise of 56K modems back then.

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The joy of the organic bike lies in its low weight, not in the category. Cross-country to all-mountain-plus remain relevant.

Everyone is currently talking about 32-inch wheels. Will we all be rolling on giant wheels in the near future?

SCHEFFER: I think so - whether on a mountain bike with or without a motor. Hopefully as a mullet structure, i.e. 32 inches at the front and 27.5 inches at the rear - that way the rear triangle won't be too long. This primarily makes sense with more suspension travel and in rough terrain. For taller riders, a combination of 32" and 29" might be an option.

>> Giant tyres Are 32-inch wheels taking over the cross-country segment? <<

SCHOLZ: Yes, that will probably happen - but you have to try out to what extent it makes sense in terms of driving dynamics. I've already had the opportunity to ride 32-inch wheels and actually wanted to think it was stupid because I'm critical of such trends. But lo and behold, I was pleasantly surprised: it drove pretty cool. Nevertheless, you can't just adapt it. For 32 inches, you almost have to start on a blank sheet of paper and completely rethink the geometry of the bikes.

Will e-chassis become more practical and affordable?

SCHEFFER: Electronic suspension systems remain a niche product. A lockable damper is interesting for cross-country racing, but I don't see various intermediate modes depending on the terrain - too complex, too slow, too unreliable.

SCHOLZ: I think so. I see potential for beginners in particular. Many people ride with completely the wrong setup. A system that monitors air pressure or rebound damping would help - perhaps this will also be available on cheaper bikes in the future. But of course, the manufacturers have to do their homework in terms of education and tutorials. The customer will still have to adjust the suspension manually to get the most out of it.

What role will AI play in mountain biking?

SCHOLZ: It will help - for example with smart range determination or the calculation of kinematics. That is already the case. However, bikes are emotional products - made by people for people. That should remain the case. Too much AI doesn't make the bike better.

SCHEFFER: When it comes to bike fitting, ergonomics, size selection or geometry recommendations, AI offers great potential to complete these tasks faster and more efficiently than conventional methods.

Back to the here and now: Which current trend is going in the wrong direction?

SCHOLZ: More power for the motors. This leads to larger batteries, more weight and is counterproductive. It also jeopardises the acceptance of e-bikes in the forest because they become so fast and powerful that you can race up hills at 25 km/h. We must not risk being banned from the forest.

SCHEFFER: I don't see a problem with powerful engines. The important thing is that it stays at 25 km/h. Engine tuning harms acceptance in the forest. The engine manufacturers are failing here because they don't integrate software that prevents exactly that. The 25 km/h limit is too easy to circumvent. Perhaps a maximum total weight of 25 kilos would also help e-MTBs - after all, we still want to ride bikes and not mopeds. By the way: I don't think ABS makes much sense on a mountain bike, but deliberately causing the bike to skid off-road can be necessary for technical riding.

What could be the next big thing?

SCHOLZ: Gearboxes - in combination with a motor or without. The current solutions are too heavy and inefficient. New approaches are needed. In addition, the topic of individualisation remains exciting: a bike that is better adapted to body proportions would be a real step forward. With Proportional Response, we are taking a step in this direction.

SCHEFFER: Tyres and wheels. It's about riding with the right tyre pressure without puncturing. I'm still not convinced by the current impact systems: they are either too heavy, don't work optimally with the rim or are complicated to fit. Then there are tubeless systems that have to be constantly topped up. Gearboxes will probably only become relevant in e-bikes because weight is less critical there. Motor-gearbox units with at least 500 per cent spread and variable gear ratios - 8, 10 or 12 gears, depending on use - could play a major role.

You can't simply adapt that. For 32 inches, you almost have to start on a blank sheet of paper and rethink the geometries.

So not another e-revolution. How electrified will the bike be in 2030?

SCHEFFER: The majority will use electronic solutions. Suspension will remain largely mechanical, but gearsticks will become electronic - even in the mid-price segment. And they will be better. Keyword: electronically controlled freewheels, no pedal kickback under braking load.

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SCHOLZ: Electronic circuits are great, so it makes sense. I hope that electronic telescopic supports will become more affordable. But I also like mechanical systems, as long as they solve the problem just as well. And the suspension of the future will certainly also be electronically influenced.

The "one bike for everything" remains a dream. In my opinion, the desire for this is not that great.

Some are already seeing a trend towards simplicity - away from electrification, whether for components or drives.

SCHOLZ: The electric drive is a blessing and will remain so. There will always be purists - and there will also be an offer for them, just a small one, as a niche.

SCHEFFER: Of course, there will always be movement. Perhaps even a completely new bike category with an even simpler design that will be popular due to its simplicity and practicality.

In your eyes, which trends have been wrongly established?

SCHEFFER: The most important things have remained the same, some things have been changed in favour of practicality. Apart from the cables running into the head tube, I can't think of anything else.

SCHOLZ: Funnily enough, I like the integrated cable routing in the headset. It causes discussion because it makes maintenance a little more difficult and therefore more expensive - I can understand that. But it also has advantages: The bike looks tidier and is quieter because the cables don't rattle. I'm happy to spend more time working on it.

What do you think of the current trend towards upside-down suspension forks?

SCHEFFER: I've been riding the same upside-down fork (Intend) for seven years - without a single service. It still runs like it did on the first day because it pushes the dirt out instead of pulling it in. This saves an enormous amount of maintenance. Technically, the design is superior: The high rigidity in the direction of travel (lateral rigidity) has a positive effect when braking and jumping. Low plain bearing forces enable a finer response even under load. The lower torsional rigidity is not a disadvantage, but an advantage in slippery terrain. After all, I don't want to rip a manhole cover out of its anchorage with the front wheel. The only problem is that major manufacturers hardly offer any lightweight upside-down models.

SCHOLZ: With the Lefty, Cannondale has already had a product on the market for many years that relies on upside-down technology. We have gained so much experience with this design and know how to utilise the advantages to develop a superior product.

For a long time, the industry has tried to build one bike for everything. Will there still be such a thing - a bike that excels in any terrain?

SCHEFFER: In terms of geometry and kinematics, a bike can be designed in such a way that it has an enormously wide range of uses. But it will always fail because of the tyres. There will never be a universal tyre. One possibility, however, would be two wheels with different tyres that can be swapped in an instant - perhaps even without having to touch the chain or the derailleur hanger.

SCHOLZ: The "one bike for everything" remains a dream. In my opinion, the desire for this is not so great - on the contrary, people want specific bikes.

The bike industry has a green image - but is it really, and what could be better?

SCHOLZ: Although the bicycle itself is an environmentally friendly means of transport, we need to go one step further when it comes to sustainability. Sustainability is at the centre of our sourcing and production, and at Cannondale we are making measurable progress. This year we have already converted the production of all aluminium frames to 100 percent green energy. We recognise that there is still much to do and are working to ensure that our bikes are not only durable but also responsibly manufactured.

SCHEFFER: Bikes should remain functional. Making spare parts available, maintaining and repairing them - that is the most important ecological contribution. A bike can last 100 years if you use and maintain it. Manufacturers should not produce disposable goods, but make maintenance easier: through exploded views, tutorials, workshops. The worst thing is to let a bike rot in the cellar instead of selling it on. The biggest effect is on people: driving less, flying less, riding locally. Mountain bikers actively protect nature: they recognise illegal clear-cutting, look out for animals, promote social acceptance in the forest. The worst environmental offender in the forest is the forestry industry, not us bikers.

The era of garage company bosses seemed to be over. CEOs from large corporations took the helm at many brands during the boom years. But soon it was back to the founders - at Canyon or YT, for example. A good development?

SCHEFFER: Yes, the boss must credibly embody the message. He must ride a bike, have passion and history. Managers without a bike background often don't understand what it's really about. Examples such as Roman Arnold from Canyon show that passion is crucial - not just profitability.

SCHOLZ: The bike with all its add-on parts is enormously complex. If you want to understand it, you have to be a passionate biker. Nevertheless, the industry can certainly learn a lot from experts in other, larger sectors.

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Market saturation is currently putting a lot of pressure on the industry. Insiders claim that this could lead to bike labels deliberately limiting the lifespan of their products - just as is thought to be the case with washing machines.

SCHOLZ: That does indeed seem to be the case with washing machines. I can only say that the opposite is the case. Our test programmes have become tougher over the years. Frames are becoming more stable and durable. Our industry has no interest in disposable products.

SCHEFFER: A sad development that has been observed in many areas for several years - but certainly not here. I'd put my hand in the fire for that.

When will the situation normalise and what does the industry need to do to achieve this?

SCHEFFER: The situation will normalise as soon as the excess stocks have been reduced and the companies can operate normally again. Initially, it was thought that this would take two years - but it will take longer. Many companies are exhausted because they have to push ahead with new developments and reduce stocks. I reckon we'll have to be patient for another two years until everything is back to normal - so we should be back to normal in three years.

SCHOLZ: The near future is likely to remain challenging - the market is recovering more slowly than hoped. The stock situation has eased somewhat, but the economy remains weak. For us as an American brand, there are also the punitive tariffs. Unfortunately, we don't have a crystal ball and can't predict the future. The industry should now bring out products that are really "on point" and not chase after every trend.

The bikes of the future from Lutz Scheffer and Fabian Scholz

• Category: E-Enduro (Carbon)
• Spring travel: 170/170 millimetres
• Battery: 1000 Wh solid-state battery, high charging speed, quick release
• rear suspension system: Midhigh pivot
• Impellers: Super-Mullet 32-inch front, 27.5-inch rear, quick-release wheel sets, toothed belt and disc remain on the frame. A second wheelset with different tyres can be fitted in no time at all; 2.35" tyres at the front, 2.5" tyres at the rear
• MGU (Motor Gear Unit): 500 % spread, toothed belt, tenfold planetary gearbox, electric freewheel, 100 % decoupling, optional automatic gearstick
• Performance: 100 Nm/ 1000 W peak, at 3 kilos
• Weight: 22 kilos

• Category: Down-Country-Bike (Carbon)
• Spring travel: 130/130 millimetres
• rear suspension system: 4-Bar Flexpivot with Proportional Response
• Impellers: 32/29" Mullet; front 2.4"; rear 2.4" tyres
• Drive: Continuously variable transmission with belt
• Fork: Lefty
• Weight: 11 kilos